The Problems with the Polls

People Beginning to Seriously Question their Accuracy in Campaign 2004

- With polls contradicting each other simulataneously in the last weeks of the election, people are starting to wonder if they can even be trusted. One recent poll placed President Bush 13 points ahead of John Kerry, while another showed the race as dead even. Some suggest the polls can affect the people's vote, by demoralizing the voter's of the candidate shown as falling behind, while at the same time energizing the leader's base. Others believe the the fluctuating polls show just how undecided the nation really is about who they want for a leader. Many pollsters admit that the system is also full of error, being susceptible to pollster bias, sampling errors, and poor questioning of the sample group. One problem arises by how polling companies vary on their method of choosing "likely voters." Another debated practice is weighting a sample based on the numbers of the political party, age, race, and gender. According to John Zogby of Reuters, "polling is 80 percent science and 20 percent art."